Market Overview
S&P 500 · Nasdaq · Dow Jones — live snapshot & historical charts
VIX (Volatility)
CBOE Volatility Index — fear gauge of the S&P 500
VIX below 15 = complacency; above 30 = fear, often marks near-term bottoms. VIX spikes during market drawdowns and mean-reverts quickly.
Fear & Greed
CNN Fear & Greed Index — composite sentiment
CBOE SKEW vs VIX — Tail Risk Divergence
High SKEW + low VIX = institutions quietly buying tail protection while the index looks calm. Classic "smart money" positioning signal.
SKEW >140 = elevated tail risk demand. Historical avg ~130.
① What each measures
VIX = implied volatility for the next 30 days (everyday risk). SKEW = premium for deep OTM puts (tail insurance). Low VIX + High SKEW means: everyday calm, but catastrophe insurance is expensive.
② How to read it (4 layers)
- Percentile, not absolute — SKEW >140–145 is notable; compare to its 1–3 year percentile range, not a fixed number.
- VIX must truly be low — Divergence only matters when VIX is 12–18. If VIX is already 25+, this is broad risk-off, not a divergence.
- Duration matters — A single-day SKEW spike is often noise (structured product flows). Sustained elevation over days/weeks carries more weight.
- Confirm with breadth — High SKEW + low VIX + widening credit spreads + narrowing market breadth = fragile calm. If credit is stable and breadth is healthy, tail insurance may just be expensive, not predictive.
⚠ Yellow flag, not red flag
High SKEW can persist for weeks while the index keeps rising. It's a risk thermometer, not a timing signal. Use it to adjust risk budget and check concentrated positions — not to call a top.
✗ Common mistakes
- High SKEW ≠ crash imminent — it may just reflect structured product hedging or options supply/demand.
- Deep OTM puts are already expensive when SKEW is high — buying them at this moment is usually poor timing.
- Low VIX ≠ no risk — VIX only sees ordinary volatility; it can be low while tail risk is being repriced.
Equity Risk Premium
ERP = S&P Earnings Yield – 10YAbove 3% = stocks attractive vs bonds. Below 1% = bonds competitive. Negative = bonds preferred.
AAII Sentiment
AAII Investor Sentiment Survey — weekly
Put/Call Ratio
CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio — options sentiment
Sector Performance
Sector Rotation — vs S&P 500 Performance
Green = outperforming S&P 500, Red = underperforming. Shows rotation signals across multiple time horizons.
Sector Rotation Ranking
Composite momentum score (1M × 30% + 6M × 70%)VIX vs Put/Call Ratio — Correlation
When VIX spikes but PCR stays low, hedging demand lags — often a signal that complacency persists. Divergence (one high, one low) = contrarian warning.
Growth vs Broad Market Rotation
Nasdaq/S&P ratio — rising = growth outperforming, falling = rotation to value/defensives
Crypto
▼ Bitcoin halving dates marked. Next halving: ~April 2028.
Gold / Silver Ratio
oz of silver per oz of gold — higher = gold relatively expensive
Gold / Copper Ratio
gold ($/oz) ÷ copper ($/lb) — economic risk indicator
Credit Spread (HYG / TLT)
HYG ÷ TLT ratio — rising = risk-on (credit outperforms treasuries), falling = risk-off / credit stress
Market Breadth & Concentration
Is the rally broad or narrow? High concentration risk = fragile bull market.
% S&P 500 Above Moving Averages
Equal-Weight / Cap-Weight (RSP/SPY) Ratio
Rising = breadth expanding. Falling = mega-cap concentration increasing.
US Treasury Yield Curve
Current yields by maturity — inverted curve signals recession risk
CN Treasury Yield Curve
Current CN government bond yields by maturity
JP Treasury Yield Curve
Japan Government Bond (JGB) yields — BoJ YCC policy shapes the short end
10Y – 2Y Treasury Spread
Inversion (below 0) has preceded every US recession since 1978. Red shading = NBER-defined recessions.
Current spread: · Source: FRED (DGS10 – DGS2)
Global Markets — Normalized
All major indices rebased to 100 at period start — compare relative performance at a glance.
Moving Averages
RSI-14
Price History
Price Forecast — 90 Days
Statistical projections from 3 independent models. Not investment advice.
⚠ Statistical projections only — not financial advice.
Economic Events
Key macro releases & central bank decisions this week