yStocker

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Stocks Ten strategies on the S&P 500 ETF rotation Dual momentum, backtested since 2006

Hold the ETFs with the strongest momentum while it is positive, and step aside into Treasury bills when it is not: the rules of daily_stock_analysis's dual-momentum rotation, applied to US funds and backtested from 2006, with what the same rule would hold on today's close.

Momentum over
Hold
Rebalance

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On the last session of each month (or week) the pool is ranked by its return over the lookback; only a positive return qualifies, each slot is an equal share, and an empty slot goes to BIL (one- to three-month T-bills), or cash before BIL listed. A fund already held stays while it qualifies and is within 2 points of the weakest pick. Orders fill at the next session's close, trades cost 10 bp of turnover, and weights are not re-equalised between trades. The benchmark is the pool equal-weighted and rebalanced daily. Rules after daily_stock_analysis (ZhuLinsen, MIT). A backtest is what a rule would have done, not what it will do; trend rules lag sharp turns and whipsaw in ranges. Not advice.